Bull share 69.8% says acceleration is still the base case, but the crash-pressure gauge says the wider market is paying up for protection.
| Direction ↓ · Stress → | Calm | Elevated | Stressed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish · bull share ≥ 55% | Risk-on | Constructive · hedged | Caution |
| Mixed · 45–55% | No edge | No edge | Caution |
| Bearish · bull share < 45% | Risk-off | Risk-off | Risk-off |
The landing page carries the conclusion. The inputs – twenty prediction markets, five signal families, and the math connecting them – each get their own page.
Twenty Polymarket markets sorted into the two stories the market tells about AI – full panels with constituents, prices, and 7-day history.
See the indexes → ii.Five signal families – prediction markets, options skew, credit, volatility, equity drawdown – scored 0–100 against fixed calm→stress ranges.
Read the gauge → iii.How the indexes are priced, how the gauge is scored, how the verdict matrix maps them – and the honesty section on what none of it can prove.
Read the methodology →