CRASH PRESSURE23.6/100CALM SOURCEPOLYMARKET · NASDAQ · YAHOO · FRED
The gauge

How much crash risk
is priced in.

Five signal families, each normalized 0–100 against calm→stress reference levels. Three are leading (prediction markets, options skew, credit – priced before the fact) and two are confirming (volatility, equity drawdown – they rise while a crash happens, not before). Only the leading side can warn; a high confirming score means the damage is already on the tape.

CRASH-PRESSURE GAUGE  ·  23.6 / 100  ·  FIVE SIGNAL FAMILIES
Deep calmCalmElevatedStressedCrisis
◀ CalmYesterday ┆ · Today ▎Crisis ▶
SOXX 25Δ risk reversal – 9.2 vol pts of downside skew
Highest-pressure family · Options skew 32 / 100 · Puts over calls on the semis complex · As of 2026-07-10
Crash pressure
0/100
Regime · Calm
Stressed ≥ 55 · Elevated ≥ 35
Snapshot 2026-07-10 20:22 UTC
REFERENCE RANGES (CALM → STRESS)