The gauge
How much crash risk
is priced in.
Five signal families, each normalized 0–100 against calm→stress reference levels. Three are leading (prediction markets, options skew, credit – priced before the fact) and two are confirming (volatility, equity drawdown – they rise while a crash happens, not before). Only the leading side can warn; a high confirming score means the damage is already on the tape.
CRASH-PRESSURE GAUGE · 23.6 / 100 · FIVE SIGNAL FAMILIES
Deep calmCalmElevatedStressedCrisis
SOXX 25Δ risk reversal – 9.2 vol pts of downside skew
Highest-pressure family · Options skew 32 / 100 · Puts over calls on the semis complex · As of 2026-07-10
Crash pressure
0/100
Regime · Calm
REFERENCE RANGES (CALM → STRESS) – prediction markets: bubble-burst 0–40% · NVDA deep tail 0–25% · H100<$2 0–30% / options skew: NVDA 25Δ RR 1–10 pt · SOXX 4–15 pt / volatility: VIX/VIX3M 0.82–1.05 · VXN 18–40 · SKEW 115–160 · VVIX 90–130 / credit: HYG drawdown 0 to −8% · HY/IG 0 to −6% / equity: NVDA 0 → −50% · SOXX 0 → −40%