How it works

A managed basket of
prediction-market positions.

Market discovery

The index tracks a curated set of 20 Polymarket AI markets across three themes. Constituent ids, weights, and methodology are public.

See the allocations →

ii.

Deadline-aware pricing

One-time catalysts are annualized with a constant-hazard model so a December deadline and a July deadline compare fairly. Structural questions (†) are left raw.

Trace the math →

iii.

Chain-linked history

The composite line is composition-neutral: a market entering or leaving the set never creates an artificial step. The trend stays whole.

Read methodology →

The verdict rule

Direction × stress → five states.

The landing page's verdict is deterministic – no judgment call sits between the data and the headline. Direction is the Bull side's share of the pair; stress is the crash-pressure regime. The full matrix:

Direction ↓ · Stress →	Calm	Elevated	Stressed
Bullish · bull share ≥ 55%	Risk-on	Constructive · hedged	Caution
Mixed · 45–55%	No edge	No edge	Caution
Bearish · bull share < 45%	Risk-off	Risk-off	Risk-off

Direction – the Bull index's share of the pair (BULL + BEAR = 1), an equal-weight mean of raw YES midpoints across the live constituents.
Stress – the crash-pressure regime: Stressed at blended gauge ≥ 55 or crash basket ≥ 40; Elevated at gauge ≥ 35, crash basket ≥ 25, or bubble-burst ≥ 15% (a single market can raise Elevated but never trips Stressed on its own).
What the states mean – each state describes what markets are currently pricing, not what will happen. "Risk-on" means the priced odds lean with the AI trade; "Risk-off" means they lean against it; "Caution" means direction and stress disagree, the classic late-cycle reading. None of it is investment advice – see Honesty below.

Methodology

How the index is built.

Curation

Twenty Polymarket markets – 11 Bull, 9 Bear (3 MKT, 6 GOV) – screened for theme relevance and tradability. Closed or resolved markets drop out of the live index automatically.

ii.

Pricing

Each index is 100 × Σ(wᵢ·pᵢ) / Σwᵢ over the constituents live at each timestamp, where pᵢ is the YES midpoint. Weights are equal or lifetime-volume. Deadline-adjusted basis annualizes event markets via 1−(1−p)^(365/days); structural markets (†) stay raw.

iii.

The gauge

Equal-weighted mean of five families, each scored 0–100 against fixed calm→stress reference ranges. Families – not raw signals – are equally weighted, so no family dominates just by having more sub-signals. Live readings and per-family notes: the gauge.

iv.

Honesty

The lead-lag study finds no statistically significant lead of the bear index (MKT sleeve) over NVDA/SOXX (right sign, p ≈ 0.14–0.19). The bubble-burst market is partly reflexive – it resolves on the very drawdowns it prices. Treat OMEN – the verdict included – as a market-pricing monitor, not a validated forecast.

Scope

“Popping” and “bubble” are different questions. OMEN’s markets and gauges answer how much stress is priced – they cannot say the market is wrong, which is what “bubble” means. For that the monitor carries two non-sentiment anchors: audited capex vs operating cash flow for the AI-capex filers (SEC XBRL), and LEAPS-implied 1-year tail odds from the far deeper options market as a cross-check on thin prediction books. Everything else here can be collectively euphoric or collectively scared at the same time.

REFERENCE RANGES (CALM → STRESS) – prediction markets: bubble-burst 0–40% · NVDA deep tail 0–25% · H100<$2 0–30% / options skew: NVDA 25Δ RR 1–10 pt · SOXX 4–15 pt / volatility: VIX/VIX3M 0.82–1.05 · VXN 18–40 · SKEW 115–160 · VVIX 90–130 / credit: HYG drawdown 0 to −8% · HY/IG 0 to −6% / equity: NVDA 0 → −50% · SOXX 0 → −40%

A managed basket ofprediction-market positions.